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View Poll Results: How much will their new CD sell in its first week of release?
100,000-199,999 20 4.56%
200,000-249,999 20 4.56%
250,000-299,999 51 11.62%
300,000-349,999 53 12.07%
350,000-399,999 56 12.76%
400,000-449,999 71 16.17%
450,000-499,999 28 6.38%
500,000+ 140 31.89%
Voters: 439. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
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Old 05-27-2009, 10:32 AM   #31
efraser77
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Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
For reference, first week position and sales:
Stand Up #1 (465,000)
Some Devil #2 (469,000)
Busted Stuff #1 (622,000)
Everyday #1 (732,000)
BTCS #1 (422,000)

http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear..._id=1000926813
http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...ent_id=1557482
http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=792658
http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=951878

Based on the overall decline in album sales, I doubt it will reach 460,000 as the previous 2 albums did...but I'd still expect it to get to 400,000 or so. It will be #1 for 1 week, and then get throttled by the Black Eyed Peas album the week of 6/9.
After seeing these I'd like to change my vote.

And seeing the Black-Eyed Peas open for DMB is still one of the weirdest things ever...right behind seeing DJ Z-Trip do same at GGP.
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  • Old 05-27-2009, 10:39 AM   #32
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    I clicked 500K+ out of faith but I am really thinking $350-$450 but I think it does have a shot at about 500,000... though U2 didn't hit it so I dunno. I will say my g/f and I alone ordered 4 units so... why not?

    Also, the single is doing really well and toping charts so it could very well renew a lot of interest in them.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 10:57 AM   #33
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    eminem didn't even give us a chance. shit
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    Old 05-27-2009, 10:57 AM   #34
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by warehouse1421 View Post
    eminem didn't even give us a chance. shit
    huh?
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    Old 05-27-2009, 11:58 AM   #35
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    None.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 12:02 PM   #36
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    341,002
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    Old 05-27-2009, 12:05 PM   #37
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    People voting 500,000+ are living in a fantasy world. Eminem used to sell 1 million first week EASILY every time out, and he just barely topped 600,000 this time around. And that's with like 3 relatively successful singles and strong support from his fanbase.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 12:10 PM   #38
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    I'll go with 115,000..Most of the #1 albums have only been selling around 150,000...with a few exceptions.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 12:38 PM   #39
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ShotgunDMB View Post
    I'll go with 115,000..Most of the #1 albums have only been selling around 150,000...with a few exceptions.
    way too low

    easily 200k

    probably 300k

    with luck could hit close to 400k
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    Old 05-27-2009, 12:38 PM   #40
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Swizz2007 View Post
    People voting 500,000+ are living in a fantasy world. Eminem used to sell 1 million first week EASILY every time out, and he just barely topped 600,000 this time around. And that's with like 3 relatively successful singles and strong support from his fanbase.
    And DMB sells

    Stand Up #1 (465,000)
    Some Devil #2 (469,000)
    Busted Stuff #1 (622,000)
    Everyday #1 (732,000)
    BTCS #1 (422,000)

    so they should hopefully be able to do around 300-400k
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    Old 05-27-2009, 02:24 PM   #41
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    And DMB sells

    Stand Up #1 (465,000)
    Some Devil #2 (469,000)
    Busted Stuff #1 (622,000)
    Everyday #1 (732,000)
    BTCS #1 (422,000)

    so they should hopefully be able to do around 300-400k
    Alright, we'll do the math as if these projects are absolutely 100% comparable (although they aren't).

    Encore came out in late 2004; over its first 10 days (this got confusing because of a shortened week on its release date), it averaged 168,859 per day sold. Relapse, released in mid 2009, averaged about 86,000 per day sold. That's a 50% dropoff from his last album - despite the fact that Relapse has a better critical/fan reaction and singles that are on par with Encore, and maybe bigger.

    So IF these were 100% comparable (like I said, they aren't, but they will be for the sake of the argument), that would lead one to believe DMB will have roughly a 50% dropoff this time as well. Even if we're very very very generous and assume it will only be HALF that much (a 25% dropoff from Stand Up)...that still puts it under 350,000.

    So yeah. I don't claim to know all, and no one can predict exact numbers in a climate like this. But to think it will exceed Stand Up or even come close to it tells me that you probably don't pay much attention to modern day record sales.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 02:40 PM   #42
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ShotgunDMB View Post
    I'll go with 115,000..Most of the #1 albums have only been selling around 150,000...with a few exceptions.
    Yes, but those are mostly albums that have been out for weeks such as Taylor Swift's album accounting for about 8 of those #1 tallies.

    I'd be willing to bet a heck of a lot of money this tops 200,000.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 02:59 PM   #43
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    This is just my thinking, but I could see DMB selling less than certain artists based on the demographic's propensity to download music illegally. I would have to imagine that a lot of Springsteen, Dylan, and U2 fans aren't savvy enough. Taylor Swift fans maybe a little too young. Eminem fans are probably the right age, so that might blow my theory.

    I'm sure I'll get hammered for stereotyping fanbases, but I bet this is true.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 03:02 PM   #44
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    fuck the black eyed peas. just let DMB get the record for consecutive debuts at number one.

    and holy shat, Everyday sold 700K first week?
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    Old 05-27-2009, 03:19 PM   #45
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    If I'm not mistaken, part of first week sales is units shipped to stores, not sold to customers. That's how it used to be anyway. But I'll say 300,000.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 03:23 PM   #46
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BIGGscoda View Post
    If I'm not mistaken, part of first week sales is units shipped to stores, not sold to customers. That's how it used to be anyway. But I'll say 300,000.
    I believe first week sales are based on actual scanned sales...but Platinum and gold records are awarded based on shipments. I think.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 03:27 PM   #47
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    one BILLLION copies. muaahhahahahahahahaha
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    Old 05-27-2009, 03:29 PM   #48
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    I believe first week sales are based on actual scanned sales...but Platinum and gold records are awarded based on shipments. I think.

    Before soundscan, sales were based on phone surveys of record store managers. It is estimated that sales of Michael Jackson's Thriller were over reported by millions. I miss the good old days of payola, and promos. Ah, the promos.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 04:39 PM   #49
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    DMB better smoke U2....
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    Old 05-27-2009, 04:47 PM   #50
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    I anticipate big numbers on this considering how many fans have bought more than one version. I've bought 5 copies of it myself. Two copies on vinyl (one to open and one to keep sealed), two copies of the Deluxe set (one for me and a gift for a friend), and I just ordered the European release that includes Corn Bread off of Amazon.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 04:51 PM   #51
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    1 Regular copy, 1 iTunes pass, 1 cd/dvd combo, 1 vinyl, 1 super deluxe. Five freakin' copies of the same album. That's why DMB's sales are gonna crush everything else. What other band has such devoted (hopeless??) fans that will actually shell out the money for five copies of the same damn album?
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    Old 05-27-2009, 05:00 PM   #52
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    We're crazy... you know... they could have just made some "fan" package for $150 that literally gives you everything. Would have saved us the trouble of buying all these different packages. Then again... they are in business to make money I suppose.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 05:50 PM   #53
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    I've been thinking about the multiple copy thing...and I doubt that will have much impact on first week sales. Only the hardest of hardcore fans are going to buy different versions, which probably limits it to Ants members and the like. Maybe a few thousand extra copies will be sold that way, but I can't imagine anything noticeable.
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    Old 05-27-2009, 06:56 PM   #54
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DMB41GUY View Post
    We're crazy... you know... they could have just made some "fan" package for $150 that literally gives you everything. Would have saved us the trouble of buying all these different packages. Then again... they are in business to make money I suppose.
    But if they put everything into one big set, Music Today won't be able to rape us on shipping....
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    Old 05-27-2009, 07:11 PM   #55
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DMB41GUY View Post
    We're crazy... you know... they could have just made some "fan" package for $150 that literally gives you everything. Would have saved us the trouble of buying all these different packages. Then again... they are in business to make money I suppose.
    I honestly don't think the band (or management) was counting on fans buying multiple copies. I expect they thought the hardcore base would buy the special edition, collector's would buy the vinyl, and young digital fans would buy the itunes pass.

    Anyway, I can understand those that buy the Special Edition and the Vinyl and maybe the itunes pass. But if you buy the special edition, why would you also buy the regular CD? And if you buy the CD/DVd, why buy the single CD?
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    Old 05-28-2009, 12:42 AM   #56
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    You are picking the number for how much the album will sell in its FIRST WEEK. Not the entire span of the album.

    FIRST WEEK sales only!!!

    For comparison, every #1 album in 2009.

    330403 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    262399 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    89607 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    71527 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    63301 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    62575 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    223741 WORKING ON A DREAM Bruce Springsteen
    179278 THE FRAY The Fray
    91716 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    62272 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    73174 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
    483925 NO LINE ON THE HORIZON U2
    254671 ALL I EVER WANTED Kelly Clarkson
    90393 ALL I EVER WANTED Kelly Clarkson
    145976 NOW 30 Various
    171525
    DEFYING GRAVITY Keith Urban
    351025 UNSTOPPABLE Rascal Flatts
    133206 HANNAH MONTANA: THE MOVIE Soundtrack
    157544 DEEPER THAN RAP Rick Ross
    124603 TOGETHER THROUGH LIFE Bob Dylan
    83468 EPIPHANY Chrisette Michele
    214828 21ST CENTURY BREAKDOWN Green Day
    600000+ RELAPSE Eminem
    Dude, Never had it thrown in my face so clearly that the American public has absolutely the shittiest taste in music possible... I mean damn...
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    Old 05-28-2009, 12:44 AM   #57
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Hah, I thought I was the only one buying multiple copies... I mean, who can pass up DMB on vinyl?!?!

    Not I, my friends...
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    Old 05-28-2009, 12:46 AM   #58
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NicKosior740 View Post
    Dude, Never had it thrown in my face so clearly that the American public has absolutely the shittiest taste in music possible... I mean damn...
    I'm not a country music fan at all...but I think Taylor Swift is a good artist with great songwriters behind her that don't make her sing songs about being 35 when she is 18. She appeals to kids and adults alike and some of her stuff crosses over into pop which brings in more people.

    Kelly Clarkson on the otherhand, sucks.

    The thing that catches me is the fact that the top albums in many weeks sold less than 100K units...times have changed.
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    Old 05-28-2009, 12:47 AM   #59
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Swizz2007 View Post
    People voting 500,000+ are living in a fantasy world. Eminem used to sell 1 million first week EASILY every time out, and he just barely topped 600,000 this time around. And that's with like 3 relatively successful singles and strong support from his fanbase.
    Yup... bought the other albums...

    Stole this one... Listen to "Beautiful" if you have it...

    hah, let me know if you want it!
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    Old 05-28-2009, 01:24 AM   #60
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    its going to do fine.


    old fans that left after SU are going to read the reviews and want to see whats so good about it, so those will get added in. whether they come back is another story, but they're going to listen to this album. members of AM and the other various fan sites are probably enough to put sales to 100,000 on their own. people who just like music and don't listen to DMB will get the album because its a big name band getting good reviews. plus all the normal fans who go to their one or two local show(s) each year who don't come on here or care or even know about the Warehouse will buy it because its one of their favorite bands releasing a new album.

    it will sell very well, and it'll go platinum shortly after.
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