~~~ 2013-2014 sports wagering thread ~~~

[tallfire8]

Just found this thread and I love it!!

If I were to make plays today it would be on San Antonio -5.5 and the u208.5...but that I don't like getting action on GM 1's or 7's so I am sitting that game out.

As for MLB, I am loving DET ML -105 against CLE. Great value on a team that is clicking on all cylinders. CLE is 1-4 against DET when Kluber is on the bump...also CLE 3-15 SU last 18 games against DET.

[deceit]

Originally Posted by tallfire8

Just found this thread and I love it!!

If I were to make plays today it would be on San Antonio -5.5 and the u208.5...but that I don't like getting action on GM 1's or 7's so I am sitting that game out.

As for MLB, I am loving DET ML -105 against CLE. Great value on a team that is clicking on all cylinders. CLE is 1-4 against DET when Kluber is on the bump...also CLE 3-15 SU last 18 games against DET.

So you'd take Detroit on the money line? Vegas has it at -115 currently as I'm sitting in the sportsbook.

[tallfire8]

Originally Posted by deceit

So you'd take Detroit on the money line? Vegas has it at -115 currently as I'm sitting in the sportsbook.

Line has been shifting slightly all day it looks like...I got my bet in with DET -112 and when I made the post on ants I saw the site I use had the line back at -105. Still, with the way that DET has been playing how could you not ride them? I also looked at CLE's bullpen, over 14 innings the last 3 games...that is a lot work. In order for CLE to win they need a very strong outing from Kluber. Expect DET to work the pitch count's and try to get him out early and get into that bullpen.

The only thing that scares me is the way Vegas has set the line...seems like this one is a no brainer...and usually when that happens Vegas is winner lol

[tallfire8]

"So Detroits charter had some issues last night and didn't fly out of Boston until this morning. Heading right to the park."

Maybe this is why the line looked a little funny. Vegas knows everything.

[Kevaroo]

Spurs getting 4 and 207 points. What's everyone think?

[Lee3691]

Home court in the NBA is usually 4 to 4.5, so that's a toughie. I'd probably bet OKC. Definitely the under though.

[Razorback]

Here's a little FBS futures thing I put together for a website (Obviously, the numbers are for entertainment purpose only):

With about 70 days until kickoff, let’s talk college football futures with two teams I like to win college football’s national championship, and a couple more I just don’t think can get to the title game.

PLAY ON:

The first is Ohio State to win the national championship at +1300. OSU has gone 12-0 the last two regular seasons, and I see no reason the Buckeyes can’t do it again. I have them favored in every game this year, including the roadies at Penn State and Michigan State (revenge game), taking a 12-0 record into the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin or possibly Nebraska. They have a legit Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Braxton Miller (+800 at 5Dimes) under center, one of the best top-to-bottom rosters in football, and head coach Urban Meyer. My only concern is the lack of experience on the offensive line, but it isn’t enough to keep me from backing the best team in the Big Ten, and one of the top coaches in the game.

My second pick is Georgia at +5000 (since bet down to +2100). I was shocked by this number when it came out because of how much value it offered. I feel that Georgia is the top team in the SEC East and will likely be favored in every game except South Carolina and maybe Auburn. The injury bug spread like wildfire on this team last year, decimating them on both sides of the ball and yet they still cobbled together an 8-5 season. And 4 of those 5 losses were within a touchdown of a victory. They have a pretty favorable schedule with road games at South Carolina, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and the yearly neutral site Florida game. The loss of QB Aaron Murray will hurt, but new starter Hutson Mason performed well after Murray went down near the end of last year. I also love the addition of Defensive Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who last year coached defending national champion Florida State’s D into one of the best in the country. And that stable of running backs this season rivals Alabama and Arkansas as one of the deepest in football. The Bulldogs are gonna be very physical this year and should flat-out wear teams down with their running game.

LAY OFF:

Auburn +1200. I know, I’m definitely in the minority here. There appear to be too many reasons to put your money on the Tigers. They beat Alabama last year and played for the title. This is the first year that HC Gus Malzahn will get to work with a returning QB in Nick Marshall. Oh, and that offense, that sweet, sweet offense. Those are all logical arguments, but last year was a fluke. They beat Bama after Nick Saban made an uncharacteristic strategic mistake. The week prior, the Tigers beat Georgia because of a lucky tipped ball. Lucky breaks, both times. But the Florida State game for the national title was proof that you need to D up to win it all. They were a Cinderella squad last year, but this team will be wearing a big target and play some tough, tough road games, including Kansas State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama. And the cross-division foes, Georgia and South Carolina, are the tops in the East. I feel they regress a bit this year and take a 10-2 record into the Capitol One Bowl.

Oklahoma +1400. Sure, the Sooners have the deepest, most talented squad in the Big XII. But I can’t get past the nagging in my head that keeps telling me they will underperform. Sure, Oklahoma beat Alabama handily in the Sugar Bowl last year, but the Tide quit before that game even started. Yes, the Sooners have a stud dual-threat QB, but nearly the entire backfield is green. And of course they look to have a favorable schedule, but could Baylor or Oklahoma State come into Norman and kill the team’s title hopes? Maybe it’s just the nickname of Choke-lahoma. While I think the Sooners have a better shot of getting to the new four-team playoff than Auburn, there’s no way I see them making it to the title game.

[Jake]

I'm not huge on futures but I think Jax is worth a play to make the playoffs. Will look at them in the first 3 wks before the books adjust to them

[jackisback24]

How could this thread go all of July and now August without any action? It's NFL season, folks!!! Top this mo fo.

[Brohan_Santana]

Got paid 4 figures on a 12 team mlb parlay. Will post my nfl favorites soon

[gocubsgo3822]

Originally Posted by Brohan_Santana

Got paid 4 figures on a 12 team mlb parlay. Will post my nfl favorites soon

[Razorback]

Another article I wrote:

If you put in the off-season work of researching every FBS team, you should be able to spot some money making opportunities by betting season win totals. I cap my wagers on single plays at -175 and will parlay several heavily juiced numbers. With less than two weeks before kickoff, let's take a look at the 9 win total bets I've placed for this season:

UNDERS:

Florida State UNDER 11.5 -115 - First off, this team will be wearing a target on their backs all season, and though they have a somewhat favorable schedule and will likely be double digit favorites all year, I expect them to drop at least one game. Clemson, NC State, Louisville, Miami, or Florida are the likely upset suspects. The loss of defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia plays another factor in my decision to go against a back to back perfect FSU season.

Auburn UNDER 9.5 -150 - If you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll remember that I'm down on Auburn this season. They caught lightning in a bottle last year and seemed to finish the season with a horseshoe up their collective asses. The schedule is gonna be rough with road games at Kansas State, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama.

Boston College UNDER 5 -160 - I don't like BC. They are one of those teams that I can never figure out. Bet 'em they lose; bet against and they win. But one thing I know for sure is that they're gonna be in a rebuilding year. They've lost 2 guys that accounted for nearly 70% of their offense, bring back only 9 returning starters, and have Florida transfer Tyler Murphy under center, and that dude's a stiff. I predict wins over UMass, and Maine, with 50/50s over Colorado State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

OVERS:

Massachusetts OVER 1.5 -135 - The new coach is a familiar face in Amherst with Mark Whipple returning after 11 years to retake the reigns of the UMASS squad. And he's brought in his former DC Tom Masella with him. The last time Whipple took over here in '98, he turned a 2-9 team into a 12-3 powerhouse and 1-AA champion in one season. All we need is for him to double last year's win total from 1 to 2.

Virginia Tech OVER 8 -115 - Coming off an 8 win season and I expect them to be better this year. They should sweep their home schedule and just need to pick up 2 wins in 5 road contests against Ohio State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke, and Wake Forest. Though they had a lackluster offense last year, 9 of those starters return and that experience should increase the point production and give them a shot at winning the Coastal division.

Georgia OVER 9.5 -106 - As with Auburn, if you read my article on this year's National Championship Futures, you'll know that I'm big on Georgia this year. Injuries destroyed them last season, but may have been a blessing as many of the backups saw playing time including this year's QB Hutson Mason. They've brought in former FSU DC Jeremy Pruitt, have 14 returning starters, and should be favored in every game except for South Carolina, a very winnable matchup.

Mississippi State OVER 7 -155 - If not for the high juice, this would warrant a 1 unit play. Miss St returns 8 starters on each side of the ball to a team that won 6 regular season games last year. With four easy OOC matchups, the Bulldogs just need to add one victory to last year's 3-5 conference record. They'll have Texas A&M and Auburn at home and Vanderbilt replaces South Carolina on the schedule. A lot of potential here.

PARLAYS (Too juiced to play singularly):

Houston OVER 8.5 &
Iowa OVER 8 &
Florida OVER 6.5 +177

Akron OVER 5.5 &
TCU OVER 6.5 &
Memphis OVER 4.5 +123

Good luck!
If you have any feedback, leave me a comment below.

[Lee3691]

Jake, are we ready for the new thread?

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Lee3691

Jake, are we ready for the new thread?

After this weekends games.



Love the UMASS O.

[Razorback]

Somehow forgot to share this one I wrote in early July about this year's Heisman race. Enjoy!

With less than two months before the start of the college football season (8/27 Abilene Christian at Georgia State - shut up, it still counts), I'd like to share the players that I feel have a great opportunity to bring home the bronze statue. But before I list their names, I'm going to show you how I came up with my list.

First, a wide receiver hasn't won the Heisman since Desmond Howard in 1991, so with apologies to Baylor's Antwan Goodley and Alabama's Amari Cooper, I've thrown out the WRs.

Second, defense may win championships, but they don't win the Heisman, unless they also return kicks or play both sides of the ball. Only 3 defensive players have won the prize, and all have also played offense. So I've removed all "strictly" defensive players.

Third, only 2 running backs have won the trophy in the last 13 years, and just 7 in the last 25 years. Of those 7, only Alabama's Mark Ingram in 2009 represented the SEC, and his win over Stanford's Toby Gerhart was the closest race in Heisman history. Hard to put up big numbers when you face SEC defenses week in and week out. So Georgia's Todd Gurley, South Carolina's Mike Davis, and the rest of the SEC backs are out.

Fourth, quarterbacks have won 6 of the last 7 races, and 12 of the last 13. Interesting to note that 4 of the last 5 QBs chosen were dual-threat scramblers.

Fifth, BYU's Ty Detmer in 1990 was the last Heisman Trophy winner that didn't come from the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC). Ironically, the best odds this season on a non-power 5 player is BYU's QB Taysom Hill.

Finally, You have to go all the way back to the 1969 winner, 6-4 Oklahoma's Steve Owens, to find a player that came from a team with more than 3 losses. Every winner over the last 44 years has come from a 9-3 or better team.

So for my Heisman winners, I looked at Power 5 QBs, and RBs from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12. And of that group, I only went with players who I feel are on 9-3 or better teams. With all that considered, I present my top contenders to win the 2014 Heisman Trophy.

My Two Faves:

QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon +725 - Mariota was well on his way to a Heisman win last season before suffering a knee injury against Stanford. That injury slowed the speedy QB and forced him to make some ill-advised throws toward the end of the season. Prior to the injury, he averaged 2.5 touchdowns passing/game with no interceptions, 9.1 yards/carry rushing and scored 9 times on the ground. Post-injury, he averaged 2 TDs passing/game with 4 INTs, 5.1 yards/carry with no rushing TDs. He will be 100% this fall, and I expect him to put up some ridiculous video game numbers.

QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State +800 - A back-to-back Big Ten Player of the Year, Miller comes into the season with a 24-2 record as a starter. Last year, he overcame an early season injury to throw for over 2,000 yards while adding over 1,000 on the ground and 34 total TDs with only 7 picks. I have Ohio State as one of the teams I like the win the championship, and Miller is one of the big reasons. And with Miller running the zone read in the red zone, I anticipate some big numbers from him in his third season heading head coach Urban Meyer's offense.

My Three Underdogs:

QB Nick Marshall, Auburn +2000 at - Marshall had similar numbers to Braxton last year, with 1,976 yards through the air and an additional 1,068 on the ground with 26 total TDs and 6 INTs. Auburn's receiving core returns intact along with 4 returning starters on the line and the running back position is fully stocked. This will be HC Gus Malzahn's first opportunity to coach a returning starter at QB, and he has stated that Marshall had a sharp spring, hitting his progressions much quicker than last year. If Malzahn opens the playbook a bit more, Marshall's name very well could be called onstage in NYC.

QB Trevor Knight, Oklahoma +2600 - Knight rebounded from early season struggles his freshmen year to end the year by pushing Alabama around in the Sugar Bowl last year. Another dual-threat QB, he is surrounded by playmakers on a potential national championship team. The only thing keeping me from listing him as a favorite is the brutal schedule the Sooners have this year. I would not be surprised by a 4,000 combined yards/35 combined TD campaign.

RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin +2700 - This number seems too high. Gordon split carries with James White last season and still managed to rush for 1,609 yards and 12TDs on 206 carries, while averaging 7.81 yards/carry (2nd in the nation). As the lone back this year, he may see around 280-320 carries and has the potential to hit the 200-yard threshold. The Badgers also have one of the softest schedules in the Big Ten (No OSU, Michigan State, or Penn State) and the back half of their season is a virtual cakewalk, and November is a great time to pad those stats.

My Four Sleepers:

RB Duke Johnson, Miami +3800 - Johnson was on pace for a 1,400-yard season in his sophomore year before suffering a season ending injury vs FSU. He's averaged 6.6 yards/carry his first two seasons, and could potentially get 1,600 yards and 14 TDs.

QB Taylor Kelly, Arizona State +6000 - With 27 career starts under his belt, the redshirt senior could finish the season as the best statistical QB in Sun Devil history. Kelly had 4,243 total yards and 37 total TDs in HC Todd Graham's third year. Oh yeah, he can also punt. Though the defense will rebuild, last year's 10th-ranked scoring offense is loaded with talent and if the Sun Devils can stay near the top of the Pac-12 South, I anticipate huge numbers for Kelly.

QB Matt Johnson, Bowling Green +8000 - Though not in a power 5 conference, he threw for 3,467 yards and 25 TDs last year in the MAC and new coach Dino Babers worked with Robert Griffin III at Baylor in 2011 and Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois last year. NIU's Jordan Lynch made it to NYC last year and while Johnson won't sniff the 1920 yards Lynch gained on the ground in '13, he is quite mobile and should have over 4000 yards of total offense this fall.

CB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan +15000 - The true freshman looks to start the season at nicelkback, and HC Brady Hoke has already revealed his plans to have Peppers return kicks. OC Doug Nussmeier wants to include him in the offense as well. He played QB, WR, RB, CB, FS, SS, and KR/PR in high school, where he was a two-time USA Today All American and track champion. Could the speedy youngster become the third straight freshman to win the trophy?

Have I left one of your favorites off of my list? Any dark horses you like? Leave me a comment below.

[Lee3691]

Razor, Braxton's record as a starter is not 24-2 - that's Ohio State's record the last 2 years. I think he 25-6 as a starter.

[Razorback]

Originally Posted by Lee3691

Razor, Braxton's record as a starter is not 24-2 - that's Ohio State's record the last 2 years. I think he 25-6 as a starter.

Actually, I wrote it wrong. I should have written "...over the last 2 seasons". His record is actually 28-8 dating back to when he took over the starter role in 2011 against Colorado (4th game of season). Thanks for the correction, will change that on the site

[Lee3691]

He didn't start a few games last year, I think his record for the last 2 years is 22-2 or 23-2.

[Razorback]

Originally Posted by Lee3691

He didn't start a few games last year, I think his record for the last 2 years is 22-2 or 23-2.

Based on OSU official site, he's career 28-8. Can't find another site that tracks games started. Now that you mention it, he did miss games due to injury...

Welp, let's not let facts get in the way of a good story.

<journalism

[Razorback]

He should be 22-2 the last two seasons.

Went 4-6 in 2011
Went 12-0 undefeated in 12 games in 2012
Missed two games last year, but OSU played in 14.
Went 10-2 last year; lost final two postseason games

26-8 career

[Lee3691]

There you go. Wasn't trying to nitpick though.

[Razorback]

Originally Posted by Lee3691

There you go. Wasn't trying to nitpick though.

No worries, I appreciate the correction. I don't wanna be the guy giving out misleading info.

[kbail1230]

Any Week 1 NFL Predictions? I'm liking under in the Bills/Bears game.