Expectations

[TheStone91]

Why are people talking about the band stopping / Rashawn and Jeff leaving? Dave just said they're going to be working on new music. I don't get any vibe that the the end is coming soon...

[Hilly]

Originally Posted by TheStone91

Why are people talking about the band stopping / Rashawn and Jeff leaving? Dave just said they're going to be working on new music. I don't get any vibe that the the end is coming soon...

Because people are insane.

They've spent 4 months stalking setlists and rambling online, and now they're tired and bored of it, so their response is to say, "Well, Jeff looked angry during Jimi Thing. He hates the song and is tired of playing it, so the band is breaking up. Trust me, I was totally in the front row, so I know." Rather than saying, "Meh, I'm getting bored of watching setlists, listening to shows, whatever, so I'm going to stop and move on with my life." For some reason, they feel the band needs to end and disband before they can just stop watching setlists or going to shows.

[bowa36]

Originally Posted by Hilly

Because people are insane.

They've spent 4 months stalking setlists and rambling online, and now they're tired and bored of it, so their response is to say, "Well, Jeff looked angry during Jimi Thing. He hates the song and is tired of playing it, so the band is breaking up. Trust me, I was totally in the front row, so I know." Rather than saying, "Meh, I'm getting bored of watching setlists, listening to shows, whatever, so I'm going to stop and move on with my life." For some reason, they feel the band needs to end and disband before they can just stop watching setlists or going to shows.

This. I've dealt my fair share of criticism to this band but some people here are absolutely unreal

[ScottCavBBQ]

just wait 2015 #DMB3sets its gonna rock. they are gonna start at the same time, still end by 11, but get three FULL sets in.

[DMBzilla]

Originally Posted by Hilly

Trump them in what manner?

Writing better setlists, making shows more unique/memorable, appealing to their hardcore fanbases, playing the best songs from their catalogs, working in more rarities...

Is that enough?

[Big Bob]

I'm too lazy to quote it, but somebody made the point that "we aren't musicians so we can't criticize" is poor logic, and they were right. Part of the reason I love DMB is that they raise the standard of music in large venues and on the radio. Or at least they did. You don't need decades of training to recognize high quality music, if you're used to hearing it. We are used to hearing it, and most of the time we're not.

And for the record, I am a professional musician and I will criticize. I've been disappointed. These guys are my heroes, LeRoi and Jeff are my alpha and omega when it comes to influences. That being said, quality has suffered. I love LeRoi to death but I think his idea of DMB having a horn section was a bad one and it turned the band from this amazing melting pot to something else entirely too polished and over-produced.

Flame away if you like, but blind consecration will do you know good.

[Tomriddle]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Writing better setlists, making shows more unique/memorable, appealing to their hardcore fanbases, playing the best songs from their catalogs, working in more rarities...

Is that enough?

Essentially all of the items listed are equivalent to "appeal to their hardcore fanbases," which I don't see why Dave ought to give a shit about, but that's just me I guess.

[BJisBA41]

Originally Posted by Big Bob

I'm too lazy to quote it, but somebody made the point that "we aren't musicians so we can't criticize" is poor logic, and they were right. Part of the reason I love DMB is that they raise the standard of music in large venues and on the radio. Or at least they did. You don't need decades of training to recognize high quality music, if you're used to hearing it. We are used to hearing it, and most of the time we're not.

And for the record, I am a professional musician and I will criticize. I've been disappointed. These guys are my heroes, LeRoi and Jeff are my alpha and omega when it comes to influences. That being said, quality has suffered. I love LeRoi to death but I think his idea of DMB having a horn section was a bad one and it turned the band from this amazing melting pot to something else entirely too polished and over-produced.

Flame away if you like, but blind consecration will do you know good.

Spot on, top notch comment right here.

...and just to comment on the thread in general, I think we as a fan community need to scale back our expectations like 10-fold next summer.

[DMBzilla]

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

Essentially all of the items listed are equivalent to "appeal to their hardcore fanbases," which I don't see why Dave ought to give a shit about, but that's just me I guess.

Yeah, why would a band want to please it's biggest fans?

They averaged around 15,000 tickets sold per show in 2013. From what we've seen they're at around 18,000 this summer, but no one was all that enamored with the repetitive acoustic sets and subpar electric sets. Just wait until next summer when the hardcores cut back on travel. You can't sustain a 40+ show tour without repeat attendees.

[coldengrey12]

Originally Posted by TheStone91

Why are people talking about the band stopping / Rashawn and Jeff leaving? Dave just said they're going to be working on new music. I don't get any vibe that the the end is coming soon...

I don't feel like it's immediate, but I'd guess there are fewer years left than there are ones passed.

I think age will catch up to DMB. Carter and Tim turn 57 this year. Ten more years? Fifteen? True, people like B.B. King (88) are still going, but a group's harder to maintain.

I think what we'll see — at some point — is that DMB will part and Dave will keep doing his own thing.

[Tomriddle]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Yeah, why would a band want to please it's biggest fans?

You people are like the guys in high school who think that if they like a girl a lot then she's supposed to like them back because OMG doesn't she understand I love her sooooo much, that other guy doesn't love her like I love her...

She doesn't like you, she likes that other guy, it doesn't matter if he just wants to hear Crash Into Me every night and you have "Heathcliff's Haiku Warriors" carved into your scrotum.

The band doesn't care how big a fan you are, it's been decades since they've needed a cent of your money, and frankly I don't think the crowd of thousands upon thousands people is going to look that much smaller if Captain Shake Me Shouldn't Close Shows and his stalwart companion First Office I Kind Of Preferred Twostep With Butch Taylor, or whatever it is, decide not to come out that night.

[DMBzilla]

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

You people are like the guys in high school who think that if they like a girl a lot then she's supposed to like them back because OMG doesn't she understand I love her sooooo much, that other guy doesn't love her like I love her...

She doesn't like you, she likes that other guy, it doesn't matter if he just wants to hear Crash Into Me every night and you have "Heathcliff's Haiku Warriors" carved into your scrotum.

The band doesn't care how big a fan you are, it's been decades since they've needed a cent of your money, and frankly I don't think the crowd of thousands upon thousands people is going to look that much smaller if Captain Shake Me Shouldn't Close Shows and his stalwart companion First Office I Kind Of Preferred Twostep With Butch Taylor, or whatever it is, decide not to come out that night.

You're way off base if you think the discontent is limited to some minuscule portion of the fanbase.

The numbers speak for themselves. Look at the "is Dave mailing it in?" poll. Almost 500 responses and it's 50-50. Think about that for a second - 50% of voters, many of which are names I don't even recognize as regular posters, think this tour was mailed in.

Also, consider the attendance numbers - around 18k per show in 2010 and 2012, and then down to 15k in 2013 after a down year. Us meaningless fans who cut back on shows after a shitty 2012 led to the band implementing this two sets deal to drive attendance back up, but clearly the band doesn't care about ticket sales.

It's great that you think everything is wonderful, but I have a feeling next year will be pretty eye opening.

[Gorge Phanatic]

I agree with DMBzilla. They need something eye opening because to continue with the status quo will be devastating (bunch of mindless drones there for the three songs with lasers). I would gladly boycott any shows next summer if it takes a major drop in attendance for Dave to pull his head out of his ass and get creative with his sets. He can write mediocre lyrics but don't neglect the superb ones that got them to where their at or the fans that got them there.

[bartender1986]

Originally Posted by Gorge Phanatic

Maybe it's a matter of expectations but I left the gorge this year hugely disappointed. Propabaly the worst sets in the ten years I have been going and legitimately questioned whether I would attend next year. I went to Bend and Friday was almost the exact same set. Do they not think that a lot of people travel and saw those shows? This tour has really sucked and I cannot believe how lazy/inconsiderate Dave is in choosing sets. I am extremely pessimistic about the future because Dave can play the shittiest most redundant sets and people will continue to go to shows at least the casual fan base....

I am thinking that to enjoy future shows I just have to lower my expectations of this band and accept that they are just going to play mediocre sets from now on.

To those who are not happy with sets (which is a lot of people) will you be lowering your expectations or simply go to less or no shows?

Worst sets? Were you there in 09?

[Gorge Phanatic]

2009? Yes. You mean Danny Barnes featuring DMB?

[bartender1986]

Originally Posted by Gorge Phanatic

2009? Yes. You mean Danny Barnes featuring DMB?

That was way worse than this year

[Hershey2004]

Expectations are valid because they are created based on previous performance quality. Dave used to write great sets (or great songs, even), and now he doesn't. How a brilliant idea like #DMB2Sets tanked as hard as it did is just testament that this band doesn't care anymore like they should.

I hate to be one of those "this band is fucked" people, but if the next album isn't Big 3 worthy or have at least 1-2 solid radio hits, I'd say we're pretty close to the end of DMB.

Just look at how many die-hard fans are ditching their normal travel plans to see the band. Some of us have decided it's likely not worth seeing the band at all again. I know hardcores are a minority, but there's only so many times you can sing You & Me (feat. Lovely Ladies) to the wide-eyed #family before it just gets sad.

[Tomriddle]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

You're way off base if you think the discontent is limited to some minuscule portion of the fanbase.
The numbers speak for themselves.

Let's see what the numbers have to say.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Look at the "is Dave mailing it in?" poll. Almost 500 responses and it's 50-50. Think about that for a second - 50% of voters, many of which are names I don't even recognize as regular posters, think this tour was mailed in.

According to my calculations, 50% of 500 is 250, so 250 people are confirmed to think Dave is mailing it in.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Also, consider the attendance numbers - around 18k per show in 2010 and 2012, and then down to 15k in 2013 after a down year.

Alright, so over 18,000 fans per concert this year. So 56 shows, assuming that on average a fan goes to three shows (which is very liberal) that gives us 336,000 individual fans.


250 out of 336,000 gives us 1/3444, or approximately .000744.


Let's look at the original claim:

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

You're way off base if you think the discontent is limited to some minuscule portion of the fanbase.

I hate to say it, but it sure looks like the discontent is limited to some minuscule portion of the fanbase. At least using the information you provided.

[stlbluespower]

I think everyone needs reminding that this band is approaching 25 years. Yeah, I too would like them to be more energized and creative and to focus more on appealing to the more discerning part of their fanbase. I'm still fairly satisfied with the current product, though, and treasure the past. I just don't get all the tons of useless negative emotion so many expend in here.

[thehoss]

News flash? You 2%'ers who will refuse to do shows next year? Good. The band could give 2 heaping steamy piles of turd that you aren't going. Because they still own the road. Regardless of drops, open your eyes. Welcome to 2014, where literally EVERYTHING is in decline. Do us all a favor, and don't bother going. Because the day they stop? I'll laugh at you to the band's grave that you decided to be pompous about a group of guys that enjoy playing an edgy YMDT or SMLAM because they enjoy. You're the ones they've taken $1,000 from early on because you thought it was cool 10 years ago to see them 20 times a year. You've already bought them house on houses.

[DMBzilla]

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

Let's see what the numbers have to say.

According to my calculations, 50% of 500 is 250, so 250 people are confirmed to think Dave is mailing it in.

Alright, so over 18,000 fans per concert this year. So 56 shows, assuming that on average a fan goes to three shows (which is very liberal) that gives us 336,000 individual fans.

250 out of 336,000 gives us 1/3444, or approximately .000744.

Let's look at the original claim:

I hate to say it, but it sure looks like the discontent is limited to some minuscule portion of the fanbase. At least using the information you provided.

This entire post makes no sense.

For starters, a sample size of nearly 500 directly interested parties is pretty good. Some national political polls are based on around 1,000 responses. When you have 500 responses, the percentages are what matter.

You're also completely off base to apply 250 to the entire yearly attendance. They're not remotely comparable. There's not even a response to such incorrect logic.

However, you can focus on the fact that there was an attendance decline of nearly 17% from 2012 into 2013 after people weren't happy with '12. People generally aren't happy this year either, which means less travel next year from a portion of the fanbase the band relies on to fill venues. Just wait and you'll see how meaningful the hardcores truly are.

[btpeters]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

However, you can focus on the fact that there was an attendance decline of nearly 17% from 2012 into 2013 after people weren't happy with '12. People generally aren't happy this year either, which means less travel next year from a portion of the fanbase the band relies on to fill venues. Just wait and you'll see how meaningful the hardcores truly are.

Chad, what portion of that 17% in 2013 do you think were casual-type fans who didn't care for AFTW and thus didn't get tickets? The album didn't seem to catch on (poorly marketed) and didn't have any hit singles to have some sort of draw and the tour provided no extra hook with it (#DMB2Sets, taking a year off, Tim Reynolds is coming on tour!). I agree the hardcores make up a good chunk, but those casuals do as well.

[Tomriddle]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

This entire post makes no sense.

For starters, a sample size of nearly 500 directly interested parties is pretty good. Some national political polls are based on around 1,000 responses. When you have 500 responses, the percentages are what matter.

Are you kidding? It's horrible sample. A sample size of 500 RANDOMLY selected people might be a good indication (actually its still small, but w/e), but polling 500 AM.org users about DMB and then applying it to the general population is like polling a Ku Klux Klan rally about racial issues and then applying it to a general population.

You'll notice those political polls don't all occur in one small town in Alabama or in Rhode Island, for instance. How many people on this website can discuss People People at length? What are the odds that a randomly selected person at a DMB show even knows what People People is? What does that tell you?

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

You're also completely off base to apply 250 to the entire yearly attendance. They're not remotely comparable. There's not even a response to such incorrect logic.

The only information we have is that at least 250 people think Dave is mailing it in. Since the sample size is astronomically biased and attendance at concerts numbers in the hundreds of thousands, this information is entirely meaningless. This is my point.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

However, you can focus on the fact that there was an attendance decline of nearly 17% from 2012 into 2013 after people weren't happy with '12. People generally aren't happy this year either, which means less travel next year from a portion of the fanbase the band relies on to fill venues. Just wait and you'll see how meaningful the hardcores truly are.

2012 was an album release year, attendance is supposed to be higher. Attendance also decreases in general as the band's MTV days get further and further behind them unless there is some sort of marketing push (such as a new album or DMB2Sets or what have you).

And DMB isn't "relying" on anyone to fill up anything. DMB will just as gladly play less shows, or play slightly smaller venues, or play to slightly less full venues, I guarantee it. The band doesn't care what the die hards do, has not cared for well over a decade, and no amount of petulant "well then I'm not going!" declarations is ever going to make them care.

[BJisBA41]

I can't wait for DMB to play the 1000 cap club I work at

[DMBzilla]

Originally Posted by btpeters

Chad, what portion of that 17% in 2013 do you think were casual-type fans who didn't care for AFTW and thus didn't get tickets? The album didn't seem to catch on (poorly marketed) and didn't have any hit singles to have some sort of draw and the tour provided no extra hook with it (#DMB2Sets, taking a year off, Tim Reynolds is coming on tour!). I agree the hardcores make up a good chunk, but those casuals do as well.

I don't know that the casual fans care about new albums all that much. There is definitely a contingent that sees their local show(s) every year without fail, if for no other reason than the fact that their friends go too and it's a big party. To me those are the average attendees who don't care what the band plays and leaves every show happy as long as they hear a few of their favorites (which, contrary to what some claim, are heavily comprised of Big Three material).

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

Are you kidding? It's horrible sample. A sample size of 500 RANDOMLY selected people might be a good indication (actually its still small, but w/e), but polling 500 AM.org users about DMB and then applying it to the general population is like polling a Ku Klux Klan rally about racial issues and then applying it to a general population.

You'll notice those political polls don't all occur in one small town in Alabama or in Rhode Island, for instance. How many people on this website can discuss People People at length? What are the odds that a randomly selected person at a DMB show even knows what People People is? What does that tell you?

The only information we have is that at least 250 people think Dave is mailing it in. Since the sample size is astronomically biased and attendance at concerts numbers in the hundreds of thousands, this information is entirely meaningless. This is my point.

I don't think you understand the discussion if this is your response.

The point is that the hardcore contingent makes up a higher percentage than you realize, and it has been falling off lately. The kind of people who would register on a DMB message board and take the time to vote on such a poll are exactly the type of fans I'm talking about.

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

2012 was an album release year, attendance is supposed to be higher. Attendance also decreases in general as the band's MTV days get further and further behind them unless there is some sort of marketing push (such as a new album or DMB2Sets or what have you).

Aside from the bold being wrong, you should probably look at the stats before making such statements...

2009 - 58 shows, 997,158 tickets sold (17,192 per show)
2010 - 57 shows, 1,052,312 tickets sold (18,461 per show)
2011 - Caravans
2012 - 41 shows, 757,629 tickets sold (18,478 per show)
2013 - 47 shows, 712,088 tickets sold (15,150 per show)

Sales increased each year from 2009 through 2012, and then plummeted last summer. There was not a new album for Summer 2010 or Summer 2012. Also, no clue where you pulled 56 shows from in your previous comment, as they played 42 shows this summer.

Originally Posted by Tomriddle

And DMB isn't "relying" on anyone to fill up anything. DMB will just as gladly play less shows, or play slightly smaller venues, or play to slightly less full venues, I guarantee it. The band doesn't care what the die hards do, has not cared for well over a decade, and no amount of petulant "well then I'm not going!" declarations is ever going to make them care.

Yeah, they cared so little that they completely revamped their tour with two sets and a ton of promotion.

[DMBzilla]

Just to further the point, here are Ants attendance numbers at Deer Creek over the years...

2008 - 3139
2009 - 3034
2010 - 3097
2012 - 2522
2013 - 2073
2014 - 1712

The same trends are evident at pretty much every venue. Do you really think the casual fans are filling those voids?

[nickdi913]

The setlists are as stale as that same black shirt Dave has been wearing since 2008...

[Tomriddle]

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Aside from the bold being wrong,

The Dave Matthews Band album Away From The World was released on September 11, 2012, and the majority of the songs on the album were debuted during the Summer 2012 tour. Last I checked.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

you should probably look at the stats before making such statements...

2009 - 58 shows, 997,158 tickets sold (17,192 per show)
2010 - 57 shows, 1,052,312 tickets sold (18,461 per show)
2011 - Caravans
2012 - 41 shows, 757,629 tickets sold (18,478 per show)
2013 - 47 shows, 712,088 tickets sold (15,150 per show)

Sales increased each year from 2009 through 2012, and then plummeted last summer. There was not a new album for Summer 2010 or Summer 2012.

2009 had the highly successful BWGK album, I'm not surprised that 2010-2011 outsold 2012-2013, since AFTW was not highly successful. And I'm not surprised that 2012 outsold 2013 as that's when AFTW actually happened. 2012 also must have had a bump in attendance due to it following the 2012 hiatus, I would wager if 2011 never happened then 2012 and 2013 would have similar numbers.

Ants have been bitching and moaning about the sets and "the band should just break up" since at least 2003. One off year doesn't prove anything... statistically you except outliers to happen, and since Ants hate the tour every year, every outlier would follow a tour that Ants collectively hate.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Also, no clue where you pulled 56 shows from in your previous comment, as they played 42 shows this summer.

They played 56 shows this year as per the Almanac.

Originally Posted by DMBzilla

Yeah, they cared so little that they completely revamped their tour with two sets and a ton of promotion.

The band has absolutely nothing to do with promotion, and the two setlists likely had to do with band members getting older, as did the break.

[Gorge Phanatic]

Tom, just stop. You are pure speculating the reasoning for two sets. You have no idea it was because "they're getting older." For all we know it was to drive ticket sales because management knows this band is fucked unless they freshen it up.

[YankeesDMB41]

I have to agree with Zilla on this one...Just from reading this website, you can tell the population of the fan base that sees 6+ shows a summer has most likely PLUMMETED in the last 4-5 years. DMB relies on its repeat customers IMO