Quote:
Originally Posted by lockman21
I'm just going to copy and paste this from a White Sox board I frequent, because I think it hit the nail on the head:
A lot of those projections seem rather pessimistic, but we won't know until the season starts. A lot of these guys could very easily outperform those projections.
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Yeah I mean the projections are going to center around the mean by nature, due to the amount of regression. That's why every year you will see that the most games won by a team is greater than the most wins predicted by a projection system. That's just the way it is.
The thing you don't exactly get with these projections, is that of course, all projections have error bars. For some projections, the spread / confidence interval is going to be greater (particularly for young players without a lot of MLB data or prospects). Abreu for instance. Steamer (to take one projection system) is going to regress him further because his production is based on one year. He is only projected for a 143 wRC+ vs. his production last year of 165 wRC+. Now, look at Mike Trout. Projected for 167 wRC+ vs. his 2014 of 167 wRC+ (and career 165 wRC+). Because he has 3 full seasons of data and therefore his production is more "predictable."
So definitely you look at Abreu and there is definitely upside from the projection.