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View Poll Results: How much will their new CD sell in its first week of release?
100,000-199,999 20 4.56%
200,000-249,999 20 4.56%
250,000-299,999 51 11.62%
300,000-349,999 53 12.07%
350,000-399,999 56 12.76%
400,000-449,999 71 16.17%
450,000-499,999 28 6.38%
500,000+ 140 31.89%
Voters: 439. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
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Old 06-04-2009, 03:48 PM   #121
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Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
It would still be the 3rd highest first week sales in the year, behind 2 of the only artists that can outsell DMB regularly (Eminem and U2). I have no idea what the band was hoping for or expecting, but 375,000 would be right in line with the 465,000 for Stand Up considering the 10% drop in sales each year for the past 4 years. 400,000 would be pretty huge in this market. Of course, that's what I'm hoping for, but calling 375,000 a "failure" is illogical.
With the massive promotion and fans buying multiple copies, selling under 400K is a "failure", but I don't mean it like total failure. It is hard to explain, but most people can understand what I am saying. Of course selling 375,000 copies of a CD in 2009 is fantastic, but with all of the promotion, they should be able to do more.
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  • Old 06-04-2009, 04:42 PM   #122
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    selling under 400K is a "failure", but I don't mean it like total failure.

    Of course selling 375,000 copies of a CD in 2009 is fantastic, but with all of the promotion, they should be able to do more.
    Without knowing what the band and industry projections are, you can't possibly know that. 400,000 is purely arbitrary. It's a nice round figure, but all we can compare is U2 and Eminem, and both had larger promotions and larger install fanbases.

    I'm not going to claim that 400,000 is a wild success, but we have to keep in mind that we are pulling numbers out of thin air here. We can't compare things year to year because the CD market has changed so much.
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    Old 06-04-2009, 04:45 PM   #123
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    I know what he said. This is not at all the biggest pre-order at all.
    What's the biggest pre-order of all time then? I think you are pulling stuff out of your ass. I would love to know the source for who made that claim, because maybe he is wrong...but I think you are quite frankly full of shit and just taking your own personal beliefs and trying to make as if you are a music industry insider.

    I can guarntee you this much. Taylor Swift did not sell 100,000 albums on iTunes in first week sales.
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    Old 06-04-2009, 04:56 PM   #124
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Fearless sold 129,046 digital copies in its first week.

    So please, know your facts before you start shit.
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    Old 06-04-2009, 05:09 PM   #125
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    I think you are quite frankly full of shit and just taking your own personal beliefs and trying to make as if you are a music industry insider.
    I never said I was an "insider". I know a few people on the inside, and have access to many things. I know how charts work, where to find important things, and expectations for singles and albums and just how everything comes about to be.

    And here is the info on Taylor since you think you know everything.

    NASHVILLE, TN. (Top40 Charts/ Big Machine Records) - Singer/songwriter Taylor Swift has solidified her position as one of the most important artists to emerge on the popular music scene this decade as her sophomore album, Fearless, debuted this morning in the No 1 slot atop Billboard's Top 200 Albums Chart, with sales of 592,304 copies in its first week in stores. This is the largest opening U.S. sales week in 2008 by a female artist in all genres of music, and the fourth biggest overall, behind Lil Wayne, AC/DC and Coldplay.

    With 129,046 copies sold digitally, Fearless is the biggest country digital album debut in the history of Nielsen's Soundscan.
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    Old 06-06-2009, 10:20 AM   #126
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Still waiting for bluecows response
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    Old 06-06-2009, 01:42 PM   #127
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Billboard projecting #1 with 390,000 copies first week. I expect 450,000 about right.
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    Old 06-06-2009, 04:41 PM   #128
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    I never said I was an "insider". I know a few people on the inside, and have access to many things. I know how charts work, where to find important things, and expectations for singles and albums and just how everything comes about to be.

    And here is the info on Taylor since you think you know everything.

    NASHVILLE, TN. (Top40 Charts/ Big Machine Records) - Singer/songwriter Taylor Swift has solidified her position as one of the most important artists to emerge on the popular music scene this decade as her sophomore album, Fearless, debuted this morning in the No 1 slot atop Billboard's Top 200 Albums Chart, with sales of 592,304 copies in its first week in stores. This is the largest opening U.S. sales week in 2008 by a female artist in all genres of music, and the fourth biggest overall, behind Lil Wayne, AC/DC and Coldplay.

    With 129,046 copies sold digitally, Fearless is the biggest country digital album debut in the history of Nielsen's Soundscan.
    I will absolutely eat crow on the Taylor Swift thing, I was wrong. I looked at this as being her first week as I thought the second column was "weeks on chart" not last week...and I knew that it was impossible for half of her sales to be through itunes.
    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/archcht.cgi?cht325
    I goofed, shame on me.

    But, that doesn't change the two main things that were the crux of my initial argument.
    1. 400,000 is a purely arbitrary figure and does not represent the difference between success and failure (unless you know for a fact that's what the industry projections were). 375,000 would be right in line with Some Devil and Stand Up taking the overall sales decline in the music industry into account.

    2. That you likely don't have any actual knowledge as to what this album's pre-sales on itunes were. I don't know if that statement that it was the most is true, but there is certainly a possibility given how heavily the DMB pass was advertised and promoted. Typically there isn't much reason to buy a digital album ahead of release, but with the pass there was strong incentive. Remember, the comment was pre-sales, not actual digital sales. So why are you so confident that he's wrong and you are right? What are you basing it off of?
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    Old 06-06-2009, 05:08 PM   #129
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by coolhotwaves View Post
    there's no way this is selling over 500,000.
    Are you sure, With all the different versions there are, I've never bought an album twice until now because of this one. The special editions price alone might help this be the most profitable album ever. I wonder just how rare the Super Deluxe album is? Take in account that because the nature of this bands past word of mouth fame and their tours are always sell outs year to year, this could be a huge deal.

    Last edited by made2heal; 06-06-2009 at 05:10 PM.
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    Old 06-06-2009, 05:49 PM   #130
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by made2heal View Post
    Are you sure, With all the different versions there are, I've never bought an album twice until now because of this one. The special editions price alone might help this be the most profitable album ever. I wonder just how rare the Super Deluxe album is? Take in account that because the nature of this bands past word of mouth fame and their tours are always sell outs year to year, this could be a huge deal.
    yeah, I'm pretty positive. The amount of people like you is actually quite low. Most people that buy this album are fans, but not hardcore. A small percent will be people that heard good reviews and might just give it a try. But cd sales just aren't what they used to be.
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    Old 06-06-2009, 10:26 PM   #131
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    currently on itunes albums:
    BW is #1.
    BW pass is #14.
    crash is #47.
    uttad is #62.
    btcs is #79.
    songs:
    ftwii is #34
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    Old 06-06-2009, 10:33 PM   #132
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    1. 400,000 is a purely arbitrary figure and does not represent the difference between success and failure (unless you know for a fact that's what the industry projections were). 375,000 would be right in line with Some Devil and Stand Up taking the overall sales decline in the music industry into account.

    2. That you likely don't have any actual knowledge as to what this album's pre-sales on itunes were. I don't know if that statement that it was the most is true, but there is certainly a possibility given how heavily the DMB pass was advertised and promoted. Typically there isn't much reason to buy a digital album ahead of release, but with the pass there was strong incentive. Remember, the comment was pre-sales, not actual digital sales. So why are you so confident that he's wrong and you are right? What are you basing it off of?
    Yes, sales are down. No one is denying that, BUT with all of this huge promotion, they should be able to move 400,000 units. It is just how it is. Big sales weeks do still happen. Eminem sold 610K, Lil' Wayne sold over 1,000,000 units, U2 sold almost 450K...if the right promotion is in place and good songs, big weeks can still happen. Like I said, 375,000+ is a very good number, but a real success and something to really be happy about would be 400,000+. I don't really know how else to explain that to you.

    The iTunes Pass cost $20. Almost double a digital album in many cases. Only the biggest fans bought this. Only 5 albums have ever sold over 100,000 units or more in a week digitally. There is no way DMB did that. 100%. They probably did about 20K at best.
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    Old 06-06-2009, 10:40 PM   #133
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    at amazon currently:
    BW is #1 in top 100 for 47 days
    BW deluxe is #10 in top 100 for 27 days
    for box sets:
    central park concert is #6 in top for 16 days
    mp3 albums:
    BW is #2 in top for 5 days
    best selling artists:
    DMB is #1
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    Old 06-06-2009, 10:48 PM   #134
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    BW will be the top selling dmb album, and I think they will sell more than 100,000 units digitally.
    go to just about any place that sells hard copies and or digital and if not number 1 its in the top 10 and climbing
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    Old 06-06-2009, 11:34 PM   #135
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lestat1600 View Post
    currently on itunes albums:
    BW is #1.
    BW pass is #14.
    crash is #47.
    uttad is #62.
    btcs is #79.
    songs:
    ftwii is #34


    on topic...it's late, and I don't feel like backreading, where can I see how much the album as sold so far/how it's doing on the charts? thanks
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    Old 06-07-2009, 12:05 AM   #136
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jsc6545 View Post


    on topic...it's late, and I don't feel like backreading, where can I see how much the album as sold so far/how it's doing on the charts? thanks
    We'll know late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
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    Old 06-07-2009, 05:44 PM   #137
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    1. Yes, sales are down. No one is denying that, BUT with all of this huge promotion, they should be able to move 400,000 units. It is just how it is. Big sales weeks do still happen. Eminem sold 610K, Lil' Wayne sold over 1,000,000 units, U2 sold almost 450K...if the right promotion is in place and good songs, big weeks can still happen. Like I said, 375,000+ is a very good number, but a real success and something to really be happy about would be 400,000+. I don't really know how else to explain that to you.

    2. The iTunes Pass cost $20. Almost double a digital album in many cases. Only the biggest fans bought this. Only 5 albums have ever sold over 100,000 units or more in a week digitally. There is no way DMB did that. 100%. They probably did about 20K at best.
    1. Yes, big sales can still happen. But the ones that will beat DMB this year are bands that have ALWAYS beaten DMB. All I'm saying is that you are pulling the 400,000 figure out of your ass and acting as if that is the industry benchmark for success of this album. So you, nor I, would know if the band will be really happy with 400,000 or if 375,000 far exceeded their expectations. 400,000 is a purely arbitrary figure that you, some random fan, is trying to pass off as the bench mark between success and failure. U2 has a much larger fan base and had MUCH larger promotions. For a small example, they were on 5 nights on Letterman. Each and everyone of those indivudal Letterman shows will attract a larger audience than the entire Fuse week of DMB promotion, combined. Also, there was no music video which means no "free promotion" on VH1 or MTV which also have significantly larger numbers of viewers than Fuse. I'm not saying there wasn't heavy promotion...but it was not as heavy as U2, or Coldplay or even Eminem that was everywhere the week of sales. DMB did a niche targeted promotion on Fuse and Hulu, a very nice interview on CBS Sunday Morning (where they did a great job of targeting the 45+ demographic), and a promo on Jimmy Kimmel which was good, but again fairly narrowly targeted, and the Today Show, which has a lot of eyeballs, but not neccesarily in their target audience.

    Look, it's fine if in your head you think 400,000 is the benchmark. But that's not what you are doing...you are trying to tell the reader repeatedly that that is the definitive difference between success and failure (and you keep implying that everyone else agrees with you and understands you, when not a single person has weighed in on your thoughts. All I'm doing is setting the record straight that you just pulled an arbitrary number, without context as to what past history has been. Eminem's last album more than doubled first week sales of Stand Up....U2 always kills on the charts. Eminem lost 40% of first week sales for this album compared to last, if DMB lost that same 40% they would be at about 340,000 sales.

    I predicted 400,000 sales. But if it's 375,000, that wouldn't surprise me and certainly would seem completely in line with the music industry today and relative expectations based on previous DMB albums and current other top sellers.

    2. Why is it so hard for you to comprehend the difference between pre-sales and after release digital sales. Everytime you keep bringing it back to first week digital sales. But that has absolutely nothing to do with a pre-sale which is what the stat was based on.
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    Old 06-07-2009, 05:47 PM   #138
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lestat1600 View Post
    BW will be the top selling dmb album, and I think they will sell more than 100,000 units digitally.
    go to just about any place that sells hard copies and or digital and if not number 1 its in the top 10 and climbing
    It will be the #1 album, without competition. It will likely triple the sales of any other album this week.

    But it will almost certainly be DMB's 4th or 5th highest first week sales behind Everyday, Stand Up, Busted Stuff and BTCS.
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    Old 06-07-2009, 06:47 PM   #139
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post

    2. Why is it so hard for you to comprehend the difference between pre-sales and after release digital sales. Everytime you keep bringing it back to first week digital sales. But that has absolutely nothing to do with a pre-sale which is what the stat was based on.
    You have your feelings about "point 1" and I have mine, so I'm just going to stop with discussing that.

    2. Pre-sales = first week of digital sales. If that is not what you are talking about, then I have no idea what you are trying to get it. Anything sold in the pre-sale is turned into the first week sales. That is what I am trying to say.
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    Old 06-07-2009, 06:49 PM   #140
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    It will be the #1 album, without competition. It will likely triple the sales of any other album this week.

    But it will almost certainly be DMB's 4th or 5th highest first week sales behind Everyday, Stand Up, Busted Stuff and BTCS.
    I think the album could beat Stand Up in final sales. If they get some nice radio hits and what not, they could do it.

    Stand Up sold 1.4 million units. I'd say for sure Big Whiskey should pass 1 million and in this day and time, that is fantastic. Many albums can't even push gold. With proper singles and promotion, 1.4 million is not of reach for the band.
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    Old 06-07-2009, 07:07 PM   #141
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    With 465,000 units sold in its first week, Dave Matthews Band's "Stand" easily debuts at No. 1 on The Billboard 200. It's the band's fourth No. 1, and all of its studio efforts since 1998 have opened in the pole position. The album's first-week sum is less than what its last two studio albums sold in their openers: "Busted Stuff" did 622,000 in 2002, and "Everyday" did 733,000 in 2001. Still, counting Matthews' solo effort, "Some Devil," this is the fifth opener for the band that exceeded 400,000 units. A very mighty achievement, indeed.

    The album's first single, "American Baby," collected 12.3 million in radio audience for the week ending May 15, according to Nielsen Broadcast Data Systems. While the band's fortunes at modern rock radio have lessened through the years, it is still a force at adult top 40 and triple-A. Perhaps more important, the video for "Baby" was the most-played clip at VH1 for the week, with 50 airings ... AOL has been streaming the band's May 9 concert that was staged at New York's Roseland Ballroom, and the group played "Late Show With David Letterman" May 16. Its tour begins June 1 in Maryland Heights, Mo. Also, customers who purchased the new album via the band's official Web site were rewarded with a handful of bonus tracks. It's no surprise that sales from the Internet accounted for 14% of the album's first-week tally. The CD was sale-priced for less than $10 at Target, Best Buy, Circuit City, Kmart and Wal-Mart ... Last week's No. 1, Nine Inch Nails' "With Teeth," drops to No. 5 with a 67% decline (89,000).
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    Old 06-07-2009, 07:08 PM   #142
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Some interesting STAND UP info.

    Exact first week total: 464,559 (465,352)

    Week 2: 157,700
    Week 3: 100,700

    sales
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    Old 06-07-2009, 07:09 PM   #143
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    In the first week, the album sold approx. 65,000 units digitally (14%) for Stand Up
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    Old 06-08-2009, 02:05 AM   #144
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    i think the 140 people who voted over 500,000 copies are very optimistic.
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    Old 06-08-2009, 08:06 AM   #145
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    I think the album could beat Stand Up in final sales. If they get some nice radio hits and what not, they could do it.

    Stand Up sold 1.4 million units. I'd say for sure Big Whiskey should pass 1 million and in this day and time, that is fantastic. Many albums can't even push gold. With proper singles and promotion, 1.4 million is not of reach for the band.
    He was talking about first week sales.
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    Old 06-08-2009, 09:58 AM   #146
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    2. Pre-sales = first week of digital sales. If that is not what you are talking about, then I have no idea what you are trying to get it. Anything sold in the pre-sale is turned into the first week sales. That is what I am trying to say.
    pre-sales = sales prior to the album being on sale and available for download. Itunes often adds a bonus song (cornbread live, in this case) for purchases prior to on sale date, that dissapears when the album is available. Yes, for the purposes of nielsen reporting, it's all counted as first week sales...but the initial claim that started this argument was that BWGK had the highest PRE-SALES in iTunes history. Meaning, sales before the album was available for download. Again, I don't know if that statement was correct, as I don't know where he would have found that stat, but pre-sales by definition...is sales prior to the album release.
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    Old 06-08-2009, 10:00 AM   #147
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DJGeneral View Post
    I think the album could beat Stand Up in final sales. If they get some nice radio hits and what not, they could do it.

    Stand Up sold 1.4 million units. I'd say for sure Big Whiskey should pass 1 million and in this day and time, that is fantastic. Many albums can't even push gold. With proper singles and promotion, 1.4 million is not of reach for the band.
    I agree with this...if it has any remotely reasonable staying power it should be able to beat Stand Up. SU fell off the charts pretty quickly by DMB standards.
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 06-08-2009, 10:48 AM   #148
    Bluecow2
     
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Follow along with the building sales chart on hitsdailydouble.com
    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

    the final tally will be ready tomorrow afternoon.
    Keep in mind this doesn't exactly match the final billboard numbers that will be out on Wednesday, but is usually very close.
    Also, as the sales build there isn't a direct correlation between final sales and the current % reported since the source of those reporting isn't known yet. Obviously direct sales from dmband.com will give a huge bump for this album.
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 06-08-2009, 10:55 AM   #149
    ericvol
     
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    ooooooooohhhh I am nervous!
    __________________
    "I will go in this way, and find my own way out."
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    Old 06-08-2009, 10:57 AM   #150
    Bluecow2
     
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    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ericvol View Post
    ooooooooohhhh I am nervous!
    about what?
    if you mean that on 84,000 sales reported with 36% reporting, don't fret. It will be a lot higher than 240,000 when all is said and done.
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