2016 Hurricane Season...

[K3nTaKa0s]

Looks like we have a disturbance off the southeast coast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[K3nTaKa0s]

We have a depression! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...daynl#contents

[K3nTaKa0s]

Looks like another disturbance next week... leading to lots of rain in Florida. Sure they can handle it, though. Hope no one is vacationing there, though.

[K3nTaKa0s]

A disturbance in northeastern Gulf of Mexico will lead to a lot of rain in the southeast. The panhandle of Florida seems to be in the bullseye...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1470536872

[K270]

God, who thinks of these names for the hurricanes. Just looking at this years names and not one strikes fear in me. Where's the hurricane Ike?

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Are you really scared of the name Fiona or Gaston?

[K3nTaKa0s]

The "I" hurricane this year was supposed to be Isis. They changed it to Ian.

[smudge1]

Pretty active out there now. I have TD9 knocking on my door.

[K3nTaKa0s]

Originally Posted by smudge1

Pretty active out there now. I have TD9 knocking on my door.

Yep. Regardless if it's a tropical storm or a hurricane, there's going to be a lot of rain down that way this week.

[smudge1]

Yup...I live in Tarpon Springs..just north of Tampa. Ground is already saturated. Any decent rain brings localized flooding.
I'm maybe 2 miles from the gulf...it will be interesting to see what comes this way Wednesday night.

[GSUdawg521]

Going down to Seaside for the long weekend for the first time. Better be gone by then!

[Jake]

tropical storm... bfd. we had more rain and wind than that 10 days ago.

[K3nTaKa0s]

Models seem to be shifting a bit west, meaning a rather wet and eventful weekend for those on the east coast. We shall see.

[K3nTaKa0s]

A Hurricane Warning has now been issued for a good portion of the Florida panhandle.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...52W5_NL_sm.gif

[GSUdawg521]

Originally Posted by K3nTaKa0s

A Hurricane Warning has now been issued for a good portion of the Florida panhandle.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...52W5_NL_sm.gif

Hurricane warning...bfd

[recentlyJTR41]

Originally Posted by GSUdawg521

Hurricane warning...bfd

This.

Only good thing about this is that it's now looking like the low in Atlanta will be 64 Saturday night. Perfect for kickoff.

[K3nTaKa0s]

Hope no one is going on vacation to the beach over the holiday weekend. The system that just went through Florida looks like it will be stalling off the northeast coast.

[K3nTaKa0s]

Matthew has been born. All of the major weather models are showing impacts in the US from this one.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...daynl#contents

[K3nTaKa0s]

Hurricane Matthew is now a Category 4 storm. Should be intense conditions in Jamaica.

[dre2142]

Originally Posted by K3nTaKa0s

Hurricane Matthew is now a Category 4 storm. Should be intense conditions in Jamaica.

Or Tropical storm winds in Jamaica.....its going west of Jamaica.

It went to cat 5 for a short while, then back to a cat 4 overnight, and no signs of intensifying moving forward. Will weaken here on out especially once it hits land.

[kydmb99]

I'm pretty sure the NHC forecast is for it to go slightly east of Jamaica or make landfall

[Dannyyankou]

One of the models has this hurricane literally paralleling the east coast. Every state from Florida to Maine could be affected.

[Timebomb07]

Lot of time left, many options left in play. Absolutely the chance of a major hurricane affecting anywhere from FL to ME. Will be interesting to see where it's at come Monday.

Danny, you referring to the latest GFS? That track would be bad news for pretty much everyone on the east coast..


Edit: and DT just hugs the Euro (which does show this going over Haiti and staying further out to sea). Not saying the Euro will be wrong/right, but especially after how iffy it was this winter, I'm not latching onto the Euro just yet.

[Dannyyankou]

Originally Posted by Timebomb07

Lot of time left, many options left in play. Absolutely the chance of a major hurricane affecting anywhere from FL to ME. Will be interesting to see where it's at come Monday.

Danny, you referring to the latest GFS? That track would be bad news for pretty much everyone on the east coast..

Yeah, and people are comparing its' track with Hurricane Donna which cause $7 billion in damage. Pretty much a worst case scenario.

[Timebomb07]

And very similar to Hazel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

[kydmb99]

Looks like each model run nudges it westward. Also kind of amazing how difficult it still is to predict future intensity.

[Timebomb07]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

Looks like each model run nudges it westward. Also kind of amazing how difficult it still is to predict future intensity.

Ya - total crap shoot at this point with how intense this storm will remain, even if it does ride up the coast.

[K3nTaKa0s]

Thru Day 6, 12z Euro is caving to the GFS.

These models are having trouble getting things right at initiation. Not sure how that affects the rest of the runs.

[K3nTaKa0s]

...doesn't cave enough. Out to sea, but it is super close. A long way to go still.

Not much run-to-run consistency from the Euro.

[RAPUNZEL13]

Crossing my fingers it doesn't hit South Florida.

[dre2142]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

I'm pretty sure the NHC forecast is for it to go slightly east of Jamaica or make landfall

sorry, meant east, then over santiago de cuba (sparing havana)