How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!) - Antsmarching.org Forums - Dave Matthews Band Discussion

Go Back   Antsmarching.org Forums - Dave Matthews Band Discussion > Archive > 'Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King' Album Discussion


Want to hide all ads on Ants? Click here
View Poll Results: How much will their new CD sell in its first week of release?
100,000-199,999 20 4.56%
200,000-249,999 20 4.56%
250,000-299,999 51 11.62%
300,000-349,999 53 12.07%
350,000-399,999 56 12.76%
400,000-449,999 71 16.17%
450,000-499,999 28 6.38%
500,000+ 140 31.89%
Voters: 439. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-26-2009, 12:26 PM   #1
DJGeneral
The GENERAL
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Michigan
Posts: 15,133

Shows Seen: 3

DMB Hub Stubs: 2

My Tour Central Stats

How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

You are picking the number for how much the album will sell in its FIRST WEEK. Not the entire span of the album.

FIRST WEEK sales only!!!

For comparison, every #1 album in 2009.

330403 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
262399 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
89607 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
71527 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
63301 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
62575 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
223741 WORKING ON A DREAM Bruce Springsteen
179278 THE FRAY The Fray
91716 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
62272 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
73174 FEARLESS Taylor Swift
483925 NO LINE ON THE HORIZON U2
254671 ALL I EVER WANTED Kelly Clarkson
90393 ALL I EVER WANTED Kelly Clarkson
145976 NOW 30 Various
171525
DEFYING GRAVITY Keith Urban
351025 UNSTOPPABLE Rascal Flatts
133206 HANNAH MONTANA: THE MOVIE Soundtrack
157544 DEEPER THAN RAP Rick Ross
124603 TOGETHER THROUGH LIFE Bob Dylan
83468 EPIPHANY Chrisette Michele
214828 21ST CENTURY BREAKDOWN Green Day
600000+ RELAPSE Eminem

Last edited by DJGeneral; 05-26-2009 at 12:29 PM.
DJGeneral is offline  

  • Want to hide all ads on Ants? Click here
  • Old 05-26-2009, 12:27 PM   #2
    Candice Smith
     
    Join Date: Jun 2008
    Location: Tampa, FL
    Posts: 452

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 1

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    340,000
    Candice Smith is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 12:30 PM   #3
    ericvol
     
    ericvol's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Jul 2002
    Location: Charleston, SC
    Posts: 3,553

    Shows Seen: 45

    DMB Hub Stubs: 19

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    385,041!!!
    __________________
    "I will go in this way, and find my own way out."
    ericvol is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 12:32 PM   #4
    Swizz2007
     
    Swizz2007's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Mar 2006
    Posts: 7,312

    Shows Seen: 18

    DMB Hub Stubs: 9

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Maybe a bit over 300,000
    Swizz2007 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 12:32 PM   #5
    CrazyCaptain41
    Coffin Rocks
     
    Join Date: Mar 2002
    Location: New York, NY
    Posts: 1,855

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    im still sticking with ~250, i hope it does better though
    CrazyCaptain41 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 12:37 PM   #6
    DJGeneral
    The GENERAL
     
    Join Date: Feb 2008
    Location: Michigan
    Posts: 15,133

    Shows Seen: 3

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    I think anything under 200,000 would be a real failure. I know times are hard and stuff, but the big acts still sell (Bruce, U2, Kelly, Eminem, Green Day) and DMB is still a big act.

    Their last album moved 400,000+ and that was in 2005. With all of this anticipation ,the single doing well, and fans getting multiple copies, I'm hoping to see around 350-400K.
    DJGeneral is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 03:08 PM   #7
    Beebz
    Tinnitus Victim
     
    Join Date: May 2005
    Posts: 37,936

    Shows Seen: 10

    DMB Hub Stubs: 6

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    400,000+

    The hype machine is out, the spring tour ratcheted up excitement, and the reviews have been solid.

    On an unreleated note, its a crime that Rick Ross, Rascal Flatts, and someone named Chrisete Michelle have No. 1 albums this year.
    Beebz is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 03:11 PM   #8
    Bluecow2
     
    Join Date: May 2006
    Posts: 3,664

    Shows Seen: 33

    DMB Hub Stubs: 8

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    430,000 or so
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 03:14 PM   #9
    JunkBondTrader
     
    JunkBondTrader's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Apr 2007
    Location: TX
    Posts: 1,881

    Shows Seen: 12

    DMB Hub Stubs: 10

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    id say around 250,000. maybe 300,000 if they are lucky. we'll see
    JunkBondTrader is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 03:27 PM   #10
    clcfball11
    Gooooooose
     
    clcfball11's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Jul 2006
    Location: Denver, CO
    Posts: 4,184

    Shows Seen: 37

    DMB Hub Stubs: 18

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    After seeing the absolute shitshow that is on that list, I just hope DMB beats them all. Good God...


    Edit: Besides springsteen and eminem.

    Edit 2: And Dylan
    clcfball11 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 04:50 PM   #11
    Bluecow2
     
    Join Date: May 2006
    Posts: 3,664

    Shows Seen: 33

    DMB Hub Stubs: 8

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    For reference, first week position and sales:
    Stand Up #1 (465,000)
    Some Devil #2 (469,000)
    Busted Stuff #1 (622,000)
    Everyday #1 (732,000)
    BTCS #1 (422,000)

    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear..._id=1000926813
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...ent_id=1557482
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=792658
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=951878

    Based on the overall decline in album sales, I doubt it will reach 460,000 as the previous 2 albums did...but I'd still expect it to get to 400,000 or so. It will be #1 for 1 week, and then get throttled by the Black Eyed Peas album the week of 6/9.
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 05:00 PM   #12
    Whiteyxc514
     
    Whiteyxc514's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Jun 2006
    Posts: 4,849

    Shows Seen: 32

    DMB Hub Stubs: 13

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    For reference, first week position and sales:
    Stand Up #1 (465,000)
    Some Devil #2 (469,000)
    Busted Stuff #1 (622,000)
    Everyday #1 (732,000)
    BTCS #1 (422,000)

    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear..._id=1000926813
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...ent_id=1557482
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=792658
    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/esear...tent_id=951878

    Based on the overall decline in album sales, I doubt it will reach 460,000 as the previous 2 albums did...but I'd still expect it to get to 400,000 or so. It will be #1 for 1 week, and then get throttled by the Black Eyed Peas album the week of 6/9.
    That's criminal. But probably true
    Whiteyxc514 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 06:37 PM   #13
    lc_2000
     
    Join Date: May 2005
    Posts: 867

    Shows Seen: 29

    DMB Hub Stubs: 13

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Does anyone know if Best Buy will sell the box next week at $49.99? I haven't pre-ordered yet and am deciding on what to do. As for this poll, I think it'll be just shy of 400,000 for the first week.
    lc_2000 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 06:38 PM   #14
    SeanMH
    GoWokeGoBroke
     
    SeanMH's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Aug 2004
    Location: West Palm Beach
    Posts: 79,504

    Shows Seen: 87

    DMB Hub Stubs: 22

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    a lot
    __________________
    -Sean


    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Klize17 View Post
    Last nights was the best version of Satellite I have ever heard.
    SeanMH is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 06:46 PM   #15
    emjohn
    MakingCancerHistory
     
    emjohn's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Mar 2002
    Location: Houston TX
    Posts: 533

    Shows Seen: 46

    DMB Hub Stubs: 14

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Given all the double-ordering the band has managed to generated with the preorder packages, I have to believe the number will be 500k+

    Every iTunes pass and vinyl counts.
    emjohn is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 06:47 PM   #16
    Swizz2007
     
    Swizz2007's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Mar 2006
    Posts: 7,312

    Shows Seen: 18

    DMB Hub Stubs: 9

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emjohn View Post
    Given all the double-ordering the band has managed to generated with the preorder packages, I have to believe the number will be 500k+

    Every iTunes pass and vinyl counts.
    ...on different charts.
    Swizz2007 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 07:08 PM   #17
    Bluecow2
     
    Join Date: May 2006
    Posts: 3,664

    Shows Seen: 33

    DMB Hub Stubs: 8

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Swizz2007 View Post
    ...on different charts.
    I don't know about vinyl...but digital album sales do count the same as regular.
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 07:12 PM   #18
    Candice Smith
     
    Join Date: Jun 2008
    Location: Tampa, FL
    Posts: 452

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 1

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    but the strange thing is that according to itunes and amazon the album is not really selling well (its in low positions on the sales charts). everyone thinks its a lock that the album will be #1 on its first week (or could there be an upset) ?
    Candice Smith is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 07:14 PM   #19
    smokew11
    1-0
     
    smokew11's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Sep 2007
    Location: Reading, Pa
    Posts: 69,843

    Shows Seen: 40

    DMB Hub Stubs: 18

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    279,483, but 4 of those will be returned
    __________________
    MyShows
    smokew11 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 07:21 PM   #20
    Swizz2007
     
    Swizz2007's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Mar 2006
    Posts: 7,312

    Shows Seen: 18

    DMB Hub Stubs: 9

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bluecow2 View Post
    I don't know about vinyl...but digital album sales do count the same as regular.
    I'm not sure that that's true. I thought it was a separate chart. But if it is true, I know they don't count in the same way that a physical album does.
    Swizz2007 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 07:53 PM   #21
    CrazyCaptain41
    Coffin Rocks
     
    Join Date: Mar 2002
    Location: New York, NY
    Posts: 1,855

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    well i was bored, so i ran a regression analysis based on first week album sales (the y variable) and # of facebook fans (the x variable) to predict how many albums dmb will sell based on their facebook group size of 463,940 members, based upon the data provided in the first post of this thread for the other artists that debuted at no. 1.

    Based on this regression, it predicts that dmb will sell 291,064 albums in the first week.
    CrazyCaptain41 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 08:02 PM   #22
    raven10
     
    raven10's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Aug 2005
    Location: Boston
    Posts: 444

    Shows Seen: 64

    DMB Hub Stubs: 21

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CrazyCaptain41 View Post
    well i was bored, so i ran a regression analysis based on first week album sales (the y variable) and # of facebook fans (the x variable) to predict how many albums dmb will sell based on their facebook group size of 463,940 members, based upon the data provided in the first post of this thread for the other artists that debuted at no. 1.

    Based on this regression, it predicts that dmb will sell 291,064 albums in the first week.

    this is absolutely ridiculous, but kind of awesome
    __________________
    -alex
    raven10 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 08:37 PM   #23
    Bluecow2
     
    Join Date: May 2006
    Posts: 3,664

    Shows Seen: 33

    DMB Hub Stubs: 8

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Swizz2007 View Post
    I'm not sure that that's true. I thought it was a separate chart. But if it is true, I know they don't count in the same way that a physical album does.
    nope. A full digital album sale is treated exactly the same way as a record store sale. A full unit is credited.

    http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/about...ethodology.jsp
    "The sample includes not only music stores and the music departments at electronics and department stores, but also direct-to-consumer transactions and Internet sales (both physical albums via Internet, and ones bought via digital downloads). A limited array of verifiable sales from concert venues is also tabulated."

    The funky stuff comes in mixing digital sales with radio airplay for the hot 100 singles chart....you can read the attached for info.
    Bluecow2 is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 08:56 PM   #24
    coolhotwaves
    is classic
     
    coolhotwaves's Avatar
     
    Join Date: May 2002
    Posts: 8,643

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    there's no way this is selling over 500,000.
    coolhotwaves is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 09:33 PM   #25
    DJGeneral
    The GENERAL
     
    Join Date: Feb 2008
    Location: Michigan
    Posts: 15,133

    Shows Seen: 3

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Candice Smith View Post
    but the strange thing is that according to itunes and amazon the album is not really selling well (its in low positions on the sales charts). everyone thinks its a lock that the album will be #1 on its first week (or could there be an upset) ?
    It goes on a weekly basis. Wasn't the album in like the top 10 in April?

    It is not a total sales. Most people have pre-ordered it by now.

    There is no way this will not be #1 on the charts.

    400,000 would be incredible. I can't see it doing any more than that.

    I think it could really do 300-400.
    DJGeneral is offline  
    Old 05-26-2009, 10:24 PM   #26
    hoke2007
    #16- I'm with Coco
     
    hoke2007's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Feb 2006
    Location: Clarkston, MI
    Posts: 14,740

    Shows Seen: 44

    DMB Hub Stubs: 17

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    275,000.
    __________________
    -Matt
    Shows attended:12.3.05, 6.6.06, 7.8.07, 8.23.07,6.6.08, 6.9.08, 8.9.08, 8.10.08, 7.18.09,7.19.09, 7.28.09, 7.29.09, 6.23.10, 7.3.10, 7.4.10
    Rest in Peace Leroi. We'll miss you.
    hoke2007 is offline  
    Old 05-27-2009, 09:44 AM   #27
    CrazyCaptain41
    Coffin Rocks
     
    Join Date: Mar 2002
    Location: New York, NY
    Posts: 1,855

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 2

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    well so far, on average, using the midpoint of the range, and 550k for the >500 spot, we as a group, on average are predicting 406,000 copies to be sold first week
    CrazyCaptain41 is offline  
    Old 05-27-2009, 09:48 AM   #28
    darbini
     
    darbini's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Jul 2002
    Location: Palm Harbor, Fl.
    Posts: 8,565

    Shows Seen: 25

    DMB Hub Stubs: 12

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    575,000ish
    __________________
    ~Brad~
    I ain't sayin' you treated me unkind, you could have done better but I don't mind, you just kinda wasted my precious time, but don't think twice, it's all right
    darbini is offline  
    Old 05-27-2009, 09:48 AM   #29
    jakezoga
     
    Join Date: Feb 2007
    Posts: 13

    Shows Seen: 0

    DMB Hub Stubs: 1

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    don't know. The music is amazing though.
    jakezoga is offline  
    Old 05-27-2009, 09:53 AM   #30
    darbini
     
    darbini's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Jul 2002
    Location: Palm Harbor, Fl.
    Posts: 8,565

    Shows Seen: 25

    DMB Hub Stubs: 12

    My Tour Central Stats

    Re: How much will it sell? (UPDATED!!!!!! vote again!!)

    www.hitsdailydouble.com is a good place to see the 'building album sales chart' and other crap like top 10's for leading record manufacturers
    __________________
    ~Brad~
    I ain't sayin' you treated me unkind, you could have done better but I don't mind, you just kinda wasted my precious time, but don't think twice, it's all right
    darbini is offline  
     

    Thread Tools
    Display Modes

    Posting Rules
    You may not post new threads
    You may not post replies
    You may not post attachments
    You may not edit your posts

    BB code is On
    Smilies are On
    [IMG] code is Off
    HTML code is Off

    Forum Jump


    Want to hide all ads on Ants? Click here

    All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:50 AM.


    Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.14
    Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.


       
    Site LinksAbout AntsAnts MobileTweet Tweet
    Home
    Ants+
    Tour Central
    Search bar
    RSS Feeds
    About Us
    Contact Us
    The Ants Blog
    Advertise on Ants
    Privacy Policy
    Ants on your cell phone
    iAnts
    mobile news
    mobile setlists
    antslive!
    Ants' Twitter
    DMBLive Twitter
    Ants Facebook
    Ants Instagram