^^^ 2021-22 Sports Wagering Thread ^^^

[justinandimcool]

betonline is usually the fastest getting NBA lines. they go up at 1pm PT every day. i did snag those Denver lines right as they opened but did notice they went down right away. lol oops

bet on Orlando if you dare! they absolutely positively suck lol i’m staying away from their spreads all year pretty much, along with Oklahoma City

[Speilmen230]

Justin, do your models do any player props or is it just Spreads/ML/Totals? I've got a handful of props out there tonight. Just wasn't sure if those are markets you typically track/pay attention to. I'm almost always tailing the "pros" on Action Network with their props.

[justinandimcool]

Tuesday opening plays:
Philadelphia -1.5 vs New York (-110)
Denver/Utah over 219 (-110)

models would say Oklahoma City/Golden State and Houston/Dallas are way under but i don’t trust those teams’ pace yet

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by Speilmen230

Justin, do your models do any player props or is it just Spreads/ML/Totals? I've got a handful of props out there tonight. Just wasn't sure if those are markets you typically track/pay attention to. I'm almost always tailing the "pros" on Action Network with their props.

nah, player props i do for fun but not sure i could model them consistently

i’ve only really figured out a model i like for spreads and totals

though i suppose i could start tracking derivative trends— for example if Dallas/New York is modeled to go under then Hardaway or Barrett’s points must be pretty low too...but i find that derivatives like that are already priced in to a lot of prop lines so i feel like it’s a tough market to really bet with confidence. add in B2Bs and rest i simply don’t have time

one thing i’ve had success with is certain matchups. no need for a model there. for example if i know Portland plays a drop coverage (which they apparently won’t anymore under Billups), Capela is probably not going to score a ton, and Young should hit more threes, so i parlay those two together. that’s more for fun than anything i would bet consistently

[Speilmen230]

Very interesting. The derivatives do seem to be baked into the lines, but that's where shopping those lines around at different books becomes helpful. Props are always wildly inconsistent in terms of pricing across books because there are so many of them. When a good one pops up, they usually spread like wildfire on AN.

Tonight I have the following:

M. Turner O2.5 BLK (+145) he's hit 3+ in 2/3 games and averaged 3.4 per game last season
M. Turner O2.5 BLK+STL (-135) see above.
Harden O8.5 Ast (+100)

Same Gamer: Portland ML, O230.5, PG13 2+ made 3s (+400)

Saw a PG13 o2.5 made 3s (-160) but that juice is terrible. Decided to throw it in with a same gamer I saw of Por ML & the Over.

[justinandimcool]

jeez almost got cleaned out 1-5-1
14-13-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

Tuesday opening plays:
Philadelphia -1.5 vs New York (-110)
Denver/Utah over 219 (-110)

added Lakers/San Antonio under 224 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

and geez a huge slate on Wednesday:

Charlotte -6 vs Orlando (-110)
Brooklyn/Miami under 222.5 (-110)
Atlanta -6 vs New Orleans (-110)
Atlanta/New Orleans under 221 (-110)
Boston/Washington under 228.5 (-110)
Sacramento +8.5 vs Phoenix (-110)
Memphis +3.5 vs Portland (-110)
Memphis/Portland under 235.5 (-110)
Clippers/Cleveland over 220 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

15-15-1

was wrong to bet against the Lakers pace, i thought we would slow em down.

no idea what happened to Philadelphia smh

[justinandimcool]

Thursday early:

Atlanta -2.5 vs Washington (-110)
Chicago/New York under 215 (-110)
Utah -9 vs Houston (-110)


risky betting against Washington but i’m riding Atlanta at the moment, as well as the model

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

and geez a huge slate on Wednesday:

Charlotte -6 vs Orlando (-110)
Brooklyn/Miami under 222.5 (-110)
Atlanta -6 vs New Orleans (-110)
Atlanta/New Orleans under 221 (-110)
Boston/Washington under 228.5 (-110)
Sacramento +8.5 vs Phoenix (-110)
Memphis +3.5 vs Portland (-110)
Memphis/Portland under 235.5 (-110)
Clippers/Cleveland over 220 (-110)

6-3

21-18-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

Thursday early:

Atlanta -2.5 vs Washington (-110)
Chicago/New York under 215 (-110)
Utah -9 vs Houston (-110)

queasy about adding so stale but the model checks out:

Detroit/Philadelphia under 212.5 (-110)
Memphis/Golden State over 227.5 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

early Friday:
Orlando/Toronto under 210 (-110)
Indiana +8.5 vs Brooklyn (-110)
Brooklyn/Indiana under 223 (-110)
Sacramento -2 vs New Orleans (-110)
Clippers/Portland over 225.5 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

3-2
24-20-1 ytd


knew i shouldn’t have trusted Memphis pace, it was due to their early opponents smh

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

early Friday:
Orlando/Toronto under 210 (-110)
Indiana +8.5 vs Brooklyn (-110)
Brooklyn/Indiana under 223 (-110)
Sacramento -2 vs New Orleans (-110)
Clippers/Portland over 225.5 (-110)

Miami/Charlotte under 223 (-110)
adding Lakers/Cleveland over 218 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

early Saturday:
Washington -2 vs Boston (-115)
Orlando/Detroit over 205.5 (-110)
New York/New Orleans under 215 (-115)
Utah -4 vs Chicago (-115)
Cleveland +9.5 vs Phoenix (-110)

[justinandimcool]

4-3
28-23-1 ytd

Lakers pace betrayed me

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

early Saturday:
Washington -2 vs Boston (-115)
Orlando/Detroit over 205.5 (-110)
New York/New Orleans under 215 (-115)
Utah -4 vs Chicago (-115)
Cleveland +9.5 vs Phoenix (-110)

adding:
Atlanta +3 vs Philadelphia (-115)
Atlanta/Philadelphia under 216.5 (-110)
San Antonio/Milwaukee under 223.5 (-110)
Memphis/Miami under 215.5 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

early Sunday

Utah pk vs Milwaukee (-110)
Detroit/Brooklyn under 215 (-110)
Houston +12.5 vs Lakers (-110)

[justinandimcool]

a few surprises!
4-5

32-28-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

lol wait spook too soon, Cleveland was down like 25 and had the best backdoor cover
corrected:

5-4
33-27-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

early Sunday

Utah pk vs Milwaukee (-110)
Detroit/Brooklyn under 215 (-110)
Houston +12.5 vs Lakers (-110)

Portland/Charlotte over 230.5 (-110)
Utah/Milwaukee over 224.5 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

early Monday:
Toronto/New York under 212.5 (-110)
Washington +6 vs Atlanta (-110)
Oklahoma City +11 vs Clippers (-110)

[justinandimcool]

hell yeah Houston another comeback and backdoor cover!!

4-1 Sunday
37-28-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

early Monday:
Toronto/New York under 212.5 (-110)
Washington +6 vs Atlanta (-110)
Oklahoma City +11 vs Clippers (-110)

adding:
Minnesota/Orlando under 215.5 (-115)
San Antonio/Indiana under 217 (-113)
Chicago +1.5 vs Boston (-110)
Denver +2 vs Memphis (-110)

for the last two, some ML value there for parlays and such

[justinandimcool]

early Tuesday

Sacramento +10 vs Utah (-110)
Houston +10 vs Lakers (-115)

i think Lakers might sit dudes but i also believe outright

[justinandimcool]

3-4 Monday

avoided disaster thanks to Chicago

40-32-1 ytd

[justinandimcool]

Originally Posted by justinandimcool

early Tuesday

Sacramento +10 vs Utah (-110)
Houston +10 vs Lakers (-115)

i think Lakers might sit dudes but i also believe outright

wow lots of system plays for such a thin slate

Milwaukee -5 vs Detroit (-110)
Milwaukee/Detroit over 211.5 (-110)
Miami -2.5 vs Dallas (-105)
New Orleans +11 vs Phoenix
New Orleans/Phoenix over 215 (-110)

[justinandimcool]

early Wednesday, not a ton of value considering the large slate

looks like the opening lines are adjusting a little bit to the under trend. a lot lower totals where i’m second guessing myself and hitting right where the model says “no bet”


90% of games now opening in the 212-219 range rather than 220-228 like usual. the days of 232-236 totals might be few and far between

Cleveland +3.5 vs Portland (-115)
Denver +1 vs Memphis (-110)
Charlotte +7 vs Golden State (-105)

[justinandimcool]

the overs were 3-2 today with totals of 236, 232, and 235 lol ruh roh

4-3 with a tremendously bad beat with New Orleans

44-35-1 ytd